AGP
Allegiance Group + Pursuant

RTM Dashboard

DIRECTIONAL SIMULATION — NOT THE CFO FORECAST. For ELT what-if analysis only; AGP's AOP and the CFO forecast shown as benchmarks.
Loaded: April 2026 MPR · Allegiance MPR Apr-26 v4 -nine67.xlsx · Trailing May-25 – Apr-26 · Forward May-26 – Apr-27
Rolling-12 Net Revenue$
$33.57M
Rolling 12 months
TTM$32.09MMay-25–Apr-26
Rolling-12 EBITDA$
$2.41M
Rolling 12 months
TTM$3.24MMay-25–Apr-26
EBITDA Margin%
7.2%
Rolling 12 months
TTM10.1%May-25–Apr-26
Rolling-12 Net Bookings$
$7.05M
Rolling 12 months
TTM$6.80MMay-25–Apr-26
Levers
“Reproduce last year” sets all levers to neutral and bookings to zero, so the forecast equals the trailing twelve months exactly.
Attrition %%
RTM Assumption
TTM Actual9.8%
TTM AOPn/a — AOP states no rate
Existing-base net revenue churn — net revenue change on prior-year clients (losses and downgrades net of expansion), i.e. 1 − net revenue retention. Expansion is modeled separately in the upsell lever. From the client-level Rev-by-Client tab (Agency client book).
Total Labor (incl. contractors)%
RTM Assumptionvs prior yr
TTM Actual74.7%
TTM AOP70.9%+3.8pp
Total labor (incl. contractors) as % of net revenue, applied monthly; default +4% reflects raises + benefits. Down = efficiency.
Opex Inflation%
RTM Assumptionvs prior yr
TTM Actual13.7%
TTM AOP12.3%+1.4pp
Fixed non-labor opex (rent, tech, prof services, insurance), prior-year + inflation; default +4%.
Sales & Marketing%
RTM Assumptionvs prior yr
TTM Actual1.4%
TTM AOP1.9%-0.5pp
Advertising + conferences, broken out so it can be flexed; default +4%.
New BookingsGROSS · $000s
Estimated gross bookings by quarter
AOP: 3,543
AOP: 2,247
AOP: 2,043
AOP: n/a
Gross bookings$8,000K
Net ratio× 70.5%
Net bookings$5,641K
TTM actual (net) $4.58MTTM AOP (net) $6.50M-29.5%
Bookings spread
Lag (months)Cohort starts 2 months after close
Spread (months)Revenue spreads over 12 months
Upsell BookingsGROSS · $000s
Estimated gross bookings by quarter
AOP: 800
AOP: 800
AOP: 629
AOP: n/a
Gross bookings$2,000K
Net ratio× 70.5%
Net bookings$1,410K
TTM actual (net) $2.22MTTM AOP (net) $2.50M-11.1%
Bookings spread
Lag (months)Cohort starts 2 months after close
Spread (months)Revenue spreads over 12 months
Forward 12-month P&L — our forecast vs benchmarks
values in $000s
Line itemMay-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Sep-26Oct-26Nov-26Dec-26Jan-27Feb-27Mar-27Apr-27Total
Gross Revenue4,2134,8444,6976,3536,2526,8286,9586,8544,4285,2226,3195,90668,873
Net Revenue2,3142,6102,5062,9143,0453,0603,2942,5982,6032,8702,8722,88433,570
Total COGS2,6872,9292,9544,1954,0674,6624,3835,0242,6513,1854,3483,90444,988
Gross Profit1,5271,9151,7432,1582,1862,1662,5751,8291,7772,0371,9712,00223,885
Payroll Expense1,3501,3921,2981,3131,2601,2281,4451,3911,4831,4721,3521,43116,415
Total Operating Expenses1,8221,7641,8171,8971,7111,5641,8981,7471,9131,8651,7691,91421,684
EBITDA-255192-34302515643718-92-1091932241102,407
Like-to-like comparison — full 12 months (real + estimated)
Like-to-like comparisonAOP · EBITDA
Jan–Apr 2027 are estimated. AOP ends Dec 2026, so those 4 months use AOP’s prior-year values as a placeholder. Both totals are shown below: real overlap (8 months) and full 12 months.
Monthly Δ (our forecast − AOP) · EBITDA
Gap narrows toward the end of the window. · * = estimated (prior-year proxy)
-$328KMay-26$283KJun-26-$405KJul-26-$444KAug-26-$86KSep-26-$570KOct-26-$321KNov-26-$680KDec-26-$79KJan-27*-$124KFeb-27*$191KMar-27*-$231KApr-27*
MonthForecastAOPΔΔ%
May-26-$254,566$73,293-$327,859-447.3%
Jun-26$191,654-$91,184$282,838-310.2%
Jul-26-$33,751$371,268-$405,019-109.1%
Aug-26$302,016$746,466-$444,450-59.5%
Sep-26$515,130$600,892-$85,761-14.3%
Oct-26$642,606$1,212,656-$570,050-47.0%
Nov-26$717,814$1,039,152-$321,338-30.9%
Dec-26-$91,535$588,008-$679,543-115.6%
Jan-27est.-$108,867-$29,390-$79,477+270.4%
Feb-27est.$193,184$316,943-$123,758-39.0%
Mar-27est.$223,603$32,602$191,001+585.9%
Apr-27est.$110,006$340,881-$230,874-67.7%
Real overlap total (8 mo)$1,989,369$4,540,551-$2,551,182-56.2%
Full 12-mo total (incl. est.)$2,407,295$5,201,585-$2,794,291-53.7%